Election 2024 /

WSJ: Biden, Trump and the Keystone Stakes If the president loses Pennsylvania, he’ll likely lose the 2024 election.

  |   By Polling+ Staff

(Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)

Biden, Trump and the Keystone Stakes

If the president loses Pennsylvania, he’ll likely lose the 2024 election.

As goes Pennsylvania…..

So goes the nation?

Galston writes:

“Pennsylvania’s nickname, the Keystone State, is fitting this year, when the state will play a pivotal role in the presidential election. If Joe Biden loses Pennsylvania, Donald Trump will almost certainly win the election. An analysis of the seven swing states shows why this is the case.

In Wisconsin and Michigan, the current and former president are running neck and neck. It seems likely that Democrats’ massive investment in field offices and get-out-the-vote efforts will be enough to help President Biden win these two states, which he moved back into the Democratic column in 2020, reversing Hillary Clinton’s losses in 2016.

In Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina, Mr. Trump has the edge, leading Mr. Biden by about 5 percentage points in each state. While the president could turn this around, the size of the deficit he must overcome indicates that the odds he faces are daunting. If Mr. Trump holds on to his lead in red-leaning states and carries these four swing states, he’ll have 268 electoral votes, two short of a majority.

This leaves Pennsylvania, where Mr. Trump leads by 3 points according to the RealClearPolitics average. To a remarkable degree, most of the polls say the same thing, giving the former president a slight edge.

A detailed Marist College survey, conducted June 3-6, helps explain why Mr. Biden trails in a state that he carried by 1.2 points four years ago. He performed better in 2020 than Mrs. Clinton did in 2016 in the suburban “collar counties” around Philadelphia, contributing to the 19-point advantage he enjoyed over Mr. Trump in this vote-rich area. Today, however, his advantage in these counties stands at only 7 points, trailing Mrs. Clinton’s 2016 performance. In the poll, 50% of voters in the Philadelphia suburbs said they plan to vote for Mr. Biden and 43% for Mr. Trump.

Three other areas of Mr. Biden’s weakness in the state mirror much-discussed national trends. In a CNN exit poll in 2020, 92% of black Pennsylvania voters polled reported they voted for Mr. Biden, while only 7% reported they voted for Mr. Trump. This month’s Marist survey found that the president’s black support has fallen to 68%, while the former president’s share has more than tripled to 23%. Some researchers and black elected officials including Rep. James Clyburn (D., S.C.) find it hard to believe that there has been a shift of this magnitude in such a short time, and they may be right. Still, many surveys conducted in recent months point in the same direction. Even if this shift accurately captures current sentiments, however, an all-out Biden campaign effort could move many black voters back to their decades-old allegiance to the Democratic Party.  

Pennsylvania 2020 President exit polls.

See Pennsylvania 2020 President exit polls.

Similarly, exit polls from the 2020 election indicate that around 60% of Pennsylvania voters under 45 chose Mr. Biden, while less than 40% went for Mr. Trump. The Marist poll indicates that the situation could be very different this year, with 46% of voters under 45 saying they favor Mr. Biden and nearly as many—44%—saying they favor Mr. Trump. Young people are mainly concerned about the economy; in Pennsylvania, 38% named inflation as their top issue. Nationally, younger voters cite additional economic concerns, including the costs of college, housing and student loans.  

Finally, much discussion surrounding the election has focused on the “double haters”—voters who disapprove of both major-party candidates. These voters now amount to 25% of the national electorate, the highest in decades. Mr. Biden isn’t doing well with this group in Pennsylvania. According to the Marist poll, of voters who say they view both major candidates unfavorably, 24% plan to vote for Mr. Biden, compared with 35% for Mr. Trump and 19% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

Until recently, Republicans were making major gains among older voters and white voters. These trends appear to be slowing both nationally and in Pennsylvania. Marist’s poll indicates that Mr. Biden will get 41% of the state’s white vote and 45% of the vote from those 45 and older, nearly identical to the shares he received in 2020. His problem is the erosion of support from nonwhite and younger voters, who supported him by massive margins four years ago. This explains why he remains competitive in the “blue wall” swing states—Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—which are dominated by older white voters, while losing ground in the Southern and Southwestern swing states, where his slender majorities rested on younger and more demographically diverse populations.

If I were a senior official in Mr. Biden’s campaign, I would pay a visit to Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, who enjoys an approval rating at least 15 points higher than the president’s. I’d tell the governor that Mr. Biden can’t win the election without winning Pennsylvania and urge him to make the case to voters continually throughout the campaign season for a second Biden term. Left unspoken would be the tacit transaction: If you risk your popularity to help the president win Pennsylvania, you’ll burnish your credentials for 2028, and people who can help you won’t forget what you did.”

Note that Governor Shapiro recently took a swing at Pennsylvanians who support Trump, calling them “the weak people that they are more than anything else.”

Not exactly a way to win friends and votes.