For the first time this year, the top two independent pollsters in RealClearPolitics rankings for the ’16 and ’20 presidential cycles have released their premier poll of a battleground state.
In a survey done of hotly contested Georgia, Donald Trump maintains his lead over Kamala Harris. When asked for whom they would vote the results were:
Donald Trump 49%
Kamala Harris 47%
Another Candidate 2%
Undecided 2%
The survey was conducted July 29-30 of registered likely voters in Georgia. It is weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.47%.
Kamala Harris campaigned in Georgia earlier this week and Donald Trump is scheduled to hold a rally in Atlanta on Saturday.
Between their two firms (insiderAdvantage and Trafalgar Group) Matt Towery and Robert Cahaly, co-hosts of the popular podcast “PollingPlus” (IHeart Radio, Apple, Spotify), have polled Georgia more than any polling units in the nation.
Their observations about this Georgia poll:
The emergence of Kamala Harris flipped prior demographic trends in the state. Senior voters moved more to the Trump column, while independent voters drifted more towards Harris. African American voters appeared to consolidate behind Harris, while Trump enjoyed a large lead among white voters. Both Republicans and Democrats said they were enthusiastic to vote in November, but Democrats made up a large enthusiasm gap from our earlier polling of Georgia of Biden versus Trump. Democrats indicated they are slightly more enthusiastic about voting in November. In an InsiderAdvantage poll of just two weeks ago, Republicans held a twenty point plus advantage in the enthusiasm column.
Overall, we believe that Georgia is likely the bellwether state for the nation’s battleground states in 2024. As of now Trump still holds onto an advantage. Whether he holds on is up to the direction independent voters take and the intensity of voter turnout between the parties. And of course, third party candidates could also impact the results.
To visit the pollster rankings of InsiderAdvantage and Trafalgar
