The two national pollsters who host the new weekly podcast Polling Plus, were right on the money with their joint final tracking poll of the Iowa Caucus. Individually Robert Calahy’s Trafalgar Group and Matt Towery’s InsiderAdvantage were the closest to Donald Trump’s actual 51% victory in the Iowa contest. And neither of their final individual polls in the RealClearPolitics average had Nikki Haley leading for second place.
But the two pollsters teamed up for a final tracking poll (appearing on RCP polling list under Trafalgar). That survey showed Trump winning at 52.1% with Ron DeSantis, not Nikki Haley in second place at 19.3%. Of the final polls in the RealClearPolitics rolling average, most had Haley leading DeSantis. That included the “gold standard” Selzer/Des Moines Register/NBC poll which showed Haley four points ahead of DeSantis.
Appearing Tuesday on Fox Business with host Maria Bartiromo, Cahaly explained that the intensity of voter support for Haley in the joint tracking poll was nowhere near as strong as that expressed for DeSantis.
Now the two pollsters turn their attention towards New Hampshire where they have a big warning to observers.
Appearing on Fox News’s Ingraham Angle earlier this month, Matt Towery told viewers that the New Hampshire primary contest is an aberration. He noted that New Hampshire allows undeclared voters to vote in the GOP primary and that, given there is no Democratic contest, there is a good chance that a significant number of Democrats might have temporarily switched to the undeclared status.
Both Towery and Cahaly say that Trump still has a chance to be on top in New Hampshire but that the support of Haley by the governor there, and the more
moderate composition of much of the potential primary electorate, make New Hampshire a “one and done” at best for the former South Carolina governor.
They note that the South Carolina primary follows New Hampshire, and that Nikki Haley trails significantly behind Donald Trump in most polls of the state. Both pollsters note that “If Haley cannot win her own state, with more traditionally conservative states following on Super Tuesday, then any potential victory in New Hampshire will be meaningless.”
Last week the two pollsters hosted former House Speaker Newt Gingrich on their podcast. This week their guest will be Trump pollster John McLaughlin.
