And the polls keep coming.
In this case The Federalist headlines a poll the Establishment types will hate. https://thefederalist.com/
Polls Show Trump Beating Biden In Battleground States, Even Amid Numerous Indictments
The story reports:
“Looking to the 2024 presidential race, Donald Trump is ahead where it counts: in electoral votes. While national polls show a dead heat, they do not tell the whole story. If the battleground states break the way current polling shows, Trump has the chance to break his electoral vote margin of victory over Hillary Clinton in 2016. And all this could occur regardless of how the popular vote plays out next November and despite the numerous, well-publicized criminal and civil indictments against him.
On Oct. 19, Bloomberg-Morning Consult released a series of polls in seven battleground states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin). Although his lead is within the polls’ margins of error, Trump leads in five of the seven states. In the other two, he is tied in Michigan and trails by just 3 percentage points in Nevada. To put this into 2024 context: Trump lost six of these states in 2020, winning only North Carolina.
While Bloomberg-Morning Consult did not release a national poll, RealClearPolitics’ Oct. 19 average of national polling showed Biden and Trump tied at 43.9 percent apiece.
When is a tie a loss in presidential elections? When it occurs in the popular vote — but not in the Electoral College vote. That is because the electoral vote determines the winner; the popular vote is just for show.
Think it cannot happen? It already did in 2016. Trump lost the popular vote to Hillary Clinton by 2.1 percentage points (45.9 percent to 48 percent), but he beat her 306 to 232 where it counted.”
Well.
For all those who insist it simply isn’t possible for Trump to win, this poll says quite clearly: Wrong.
It is October of 2023, a full year and a few weeks from the 2024 November election. Which is to say there will be more polls – many more polls – that will say this, that or something other.
Recall the famous polls of 1948 that predicted New York Republican Governor Thomas E. Dewey was a sure thing over Democrat President Harry S. Truman? So confident was the media of the day in these polls that Life Magazine ran a picture of Dewey and his wife crossing San Francisco Bay on a ferry with this caption:
“The Next President Travels By Ferry Boat Over the Broad Waters of san Francisco Bay.”
Suffice to say there was much egg on face for the Life editors on election night.
Then too recall those polls of the day (1963) that predicted Arizona’s GOP Senator Barry Goldwater would be defeated by Democrat President John F. Kennedy in 1964. Who, of course, would be assassinated in Dallas, Texas on November 22nd of 1963.
All of which is to say that polls are snapshots of the moment. No one knows what will be the case by the time election day of 2024 rolls around. Only a few short weeks ago there was no war in Israel.
What makes polls useful is that they can indeed measure a moment. And in this case, the very fact that former President Trump is, according to this poll, very much a potential winner does indeed say a great deal. He is far, far from being counted out.
Buckle in.
