Polls /

Pollsters don’t believe a poll – ABC/WaPo

  |   By Polling+ Staff

Pen filling out a survey, focus on options.

What happens when the pollsters don’t believe the polls?

This amusing outcome drew the attention, among others, of Newsmax. https://www.newsmax.com/politics/poll-donald-trump-joe-biden/2023/09/24/id/1135686/ Their headline:

ABC Poll: Trump Leads Biden by 10, Pollsters Can’t Believe It

The story says:

“Former President Donald Trump drew a majority 52% support among registered voters in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup with current President Joe Biden, whose support has sunk to just 42% in The Washington Post-ABC News poll.

The Post’s report Sunday morning said other polling might be more accurately showing the electorate’s support for Biden as closer to a “virtual dead heat.”

“The Post-ABC poll shows Biden trailing Trump by 10 percentage points at this early stage in the election cycle, although the sizable margin of Trump’s lead in this survey is significantly at odds with other public polls that show the general election contest a virtual dead heat,” the Post read.

“The difference between this poll and others, as well as the unusual makeup of Trump’s and Biden’s coalitions in this survey, suggest it is probably an outlier.”

Newsmax also noted: “Notably, Trump was leading by 6 points among registered voters in May, too (49%-43%).”


That said, it would be wise to be cautious about any polls. Recall this from the New York Times on election day morning of 2016: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/presidential-polls-forecast.html

Hillary Clinton has an 85% chance to win.


She didn’t.