Trump 47%, Harris 46%
Conducted August 18-19; 800 Likely Voters: Margin of Error 3.46%
The latest InsiderAdvantage survey of Pennsylvania shows Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in a very tight race with Trump leading by one point.
The Results:
Donald Trump: 47%
Kamala Harris: 46%
Other: 3%
Undecided: 4%
Analysis by Matt Towery:
As expected, the race in Pennsylvania is very close. In this poll, Trump has managed to win independent voters back (48%-38%) while Harris is consolidating the African American vote (76%-9%).Â
Contrary to what some might think, the percent of African American voters in Pennsylvania is substantially less than in a swing state such as Georgia. But that demographic’s vote is critical to a Harris win.
Trump’s efforts should likely focus on senior voters. In some states he is winning that group but in Pennsylvania he trails outside the margin of error for that subset.
Democrats still lead as to enthusiasm about voting, but the gap has narrowed to a nine-point lead. As in every swing state we have polled, independents are the least enthusiastic about voting this year.
Topline crosstabs can be found at: www.insideradvantage.com
